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The next decade could be the beginning of the end for iPhone



Economics is a curious academic discipline. In it, the "experts" predict the behavior of the market or its members by interpreting some parameters. Thus, while some analysts may estimate something, others may foresee exactly the opposite. This is what is happening to Apple, that while many see her as a strong leader terribly differentiated sector competition , others believe that these periods of contrition in sales are the beginning of the end of halo apple as we know it .

And it is that Oppenheimer analysts predict after the tenth anniversary of the launch of the Apple iPhone, there will be a black decade that will make Apple down from its pedestal and end fighting in the mud rooms with Huawei shift.

According to Andrew Uerkwitz, iPhone sales will peak over the next year with the launch of the anticipated iPhone 8 in September , managed to sell about 245 million units during the fourth quarter of 2017 and the full fiscal year 2018. That is an increase Of 9% over what is expected for 2017.


However, the future becomes ominous after the iPhone in August. For Uerkwitz will be the last big victory of the Apple, because afterwards consumers will be directed towards cheaper devices. According to their estimates, economic ratios predict that the risks for the company had never been so great.

But he's not the only pessimist around Apple. James Cakmak of Monness Crespi Hardt points out that the field in consumer behavior has already begun extending the life of smartphones - come on , we renew the technology park later - and that the threat of rivals like Amazon or Google will be tough on phones, Streaming and increased reality. Finally, Cakmak thinks Apple is taking a wrong strategy selling refurbished iPhone, you can cut so signficativa the sale of new devices and therefore affect the selling price of the new smartphones.

APPLE WILL NOT HAVE IT EASY IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS, IF IT RETURNS TO ITS LEVEL


Also, the current situation caused by the appointment of Donald Trump as president of the United States - which claims that Apple manufactures its terminals on American soil - is not favorable. Bringing production to the United States will have a direct impact on costs, inflating sales prices with respect to current models, or competition, with Asian capital and, as it could not be otherwise, manufactures all its components on that continent.

As we said before, economics is a curious and well argued discipline, it allows almost any opinion to fit. Without going any further Michael Walkley deCanaccord Genuity is contrary to these thoughts as unflattering, he believes that Apple will weather the storm and even come out unscathed, achieving better numbers so far, despite the tough competition in the sector.


Others however point out that diversification in the Apple market may be the key, pointing directly towards augmented reality and smart cars. However Tim Cook has already promised to be working on it, although barely rumors have been leaked. One thing is clear: the future is not written, but the continuing struggle for Apple's innovation, impeccable brand image and its current market position are a reality that must play in favor of Cupertino.
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