Wednesday, 21 March 2018

The iPhone X: An absolute success or the bluff of the year?

If the rumors are true, the iPhone X would be producing in lower than normal amounts in March because of low demand. At the same time, other rumors say that Apple will get big sales this 2018.

Two things that can not be true at the same time , but that will depend on the report you read about the iPhone X and its forecasts for the immediate future. What should we consider? Which one is right?

The iPhone X sells less than expected

According to Business Insider and the latest report from Longbow Research, the sales landscape of the iPhone X is quite black. Analysts Shawn Harrison and Gausia Chowdhury say that not even Christmas sales of the iPhone X have been high and of course, this trend will continue during the first half of the year.

They claim that according to an informant from the chain of manufacturers:

    The iPhone X did not sell well during the holidays and we did not get as many orders as expected in the first quarter. It is worse than normal. The March quarter has been low and we expect it to remain that way throughout the year.

Not even a reduction in the sale price will animate the matter, they confirm:

    The sale price during the 4th quarter of 2017 was high for the iPhone X, but will start to fall this quarter.

Nomura analysts say in the same way, reducing the forecasts simply by what they have seen in the production chain, insisting that the price of the iPhone X is to blame for everything and the lack of market elasticity, by which Consumers would not adapt to the price rises and would look for other options within Apple, among Android manufacturers and even with reconditioned iPhones, which have indeed achieved a significant rebound lately.

2018 could be the year of the iPhone sales supercycle

Now it is time to review the other side of the coin, the optimistic forecast of Digitimes , which ensures that Apple would have placed an order that ranges between 250 and 270 million panels by 2018 , a figure that exceeds all Apple numbers of previous years .

And it is that the record sales of the bitten apple happened in 2015, when they sold 231 million terminals . Does Apple believe that this 2018 will be a sales supercycle ?

According to the filtration of the Asian newspaper Digitimes, Apple would buy 110 to 130 million OLED panels, which would be divided into 70-80 million of 5.9 inches and 40-50 million of 6.5 inches. Likewise, it would acquire 60-70 million LTPS displays for the most possible low cost iPhone and the same amount to manufacture existing models such as 8, 7, SE and earlier.

What should we believe?

Are the analysts right? Or Digitimes? Is the iPhone X selling much? Does Apple prepare for a supercycle? Exposed the rumors and analysis that we have known in recent times, we must take into account several premises .

For starters, Apple has not yet given quarterly sales , so the reports are based on estimates of previous years, market studies, historical and declarations of supply chain workers, but that we are accurate. However, they are a good approximation.

It is true that in Europe and above all the United States, the iPhone is a star product that is causing a furore , and many people have not thought twice about it, either because of the influence of the bitten apple, because of the quality of the device or simply because the price of the top of the current range exceeds one thousand euros, whether Google, Samsung or Apple.

But in emerging markets these high prices will hurt , which is why we find so many clones of the iPhone X looking to make their August. Yes, the notch is fashionable, but many will buy something that will look like an iPhone X but will not be an iPhone X.

Neither can we ignore something : iPhone X sales may not be as high as Apple expected, but thanks to its sales price, Apple is making more profits than ever .

Regarding the rumors, we must take them with some caution: Apple is usually very precise when it comes to manufacturing and is not the first time you have stock problems for trying to adjust their forecasts downwards.

So of course you have planned more than 200 million, but it is strange to reach the 270 with the sales history of the iPhone and with updated data on sales of the iPhone X, so perhaps it could be a leak that could include the displays of other devices, or just something swollen . 

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